About Scenario Methods as a Tool for Risk Management
Our members find a scenario-based approach to risk management highly relevant today, especially considering the insights we are gaining about the potential impacts of the ongoing energy evolution. These uncertainties have significant implications for the effectiveness of our organizations' risk management practices.
Scenario analysis is a vital tool that can enable organizations to explore future risks without relying on rich historical data as a basis for analyses. However, this also means scenarios used must be robust and plausible for them to be actionable. Having well-developed scenarios is essential for broadening our understanding of the possible future outcomes and identifying potential risk mitigation alternatives. Best practice scenarios are especially important in multi-stakeholder environments, as they foster a shared understanding and common vocabulary for discussing the potential futures.
What’s Going On Now?
A Series of Virtual Workshops; How to Model Risk Scenarios
Currently, the group is hosting a series of three workshops that take a deep dive into leading methodologies for deriving risk metrics and insights from scenarios. We are doing this by building a working model together, using LNG as a case study. The final model will be available to members as a foundation for further development into a model of their company’s specific risk profile.
If you are interested in getting involved, whether a CCRO member or not, feel free to register for these workshops and participate as a guest of the CCRO.
Workshop #1 was held on Friday, May 15th; videos, the workshop summary, and workshop 1 materials can be found here…
This was all about goals, risk drivers, data, and structure for the model build
Workshop #2 is scheduled for Friday, June 26th
This will be a group review of the first-run output of the draft model, and a discussion of corrections and expansions.
Workshop #3 is scheduled for Friday, July 10th
This will be a group review of the final output of the model, and a discussion about the resulting risk metrics and their use
If you are interested in getting involved, whether a CCRO member or not, feel free to register for these workshops and participate as a guest of the CCRO.
Click here to access all workshop materials
Group overview and each workshop’s materials are available here as they become available…
Workshop Leaders:
Chris Dann, Teneo
Christian Schutz, Ernst & Young
Mosin Abbas, Talgo
Haydee Vielma, BP
Eugen Luja, Repsol
Dhaval Shah, RWE
Recalling 2025; Two Successful Workshops Addressing “Scenario Development” Leading Practices
The scenarios group is happy to report that we’ve held our most popular CCRO workshops yet as part of this group’s Phase 1 objectives. The March meeting focused on US drivers, while the May meeting took a more global perspective on drivers. Together, they involved more than eighty risk professionals actively sharing ideas and viewpoints, while developing a set of practical and plausible scenarios for energy companies to consider.
US Scenario Development Workshop 2025
March 2025: A summary of the scenarios and their development at this workshop
Europe Scenario Development Workshop 2025
May 2025: A summary of the scenarios and their development at this workshop
The Working Group’s Expressed Interests as Aspirations
During past meetings, members have expressed interest in pursuing several best practices through this working group, including:
Enhancing existing frameworks for scenario analysis to focus on energy risk.
Clarifying the differences between scenario planning and stress testing.
Creating a shared list of best practice drivers to consider.
Distinguishing between clearly defined “drivers” and a “story” that enhances plausibility.
Publishing standard terminology for scenarios.
Exploring organizational best practices.
Identifying best practices in scenario modeling.
Reviewing available scenario modeling tools today.
As we continue this group’s activities and work, we look forward to exploring these topics and others.
Join us! Contact the CCRO Executive Director at info@CCRO.org
Catch Up With Our Short Videos from the Group’s Start
Hosted by Emeritus member Chris Dann, our first deep dive explored the origins of scenario planning, the process for developing actionable scenarios, and potential best practices for scenario analysis. For anyone that would like to be a part of this group, our session was recorded so you might catch-up. See below, we offer the discussion consolidated into eight short video clips to help you get motivated to join us in this initiative:
